Uncertainty Rising
We are making real progress on sustainability. A fleeting visit to Amsterdam. Electric planes. A world of rising uncertainty. Recent Nobel prize winner. What Goldin (Econ) has shown. Links.
Amsterdam Travels
Sustainability Progress
Uncertainty Rising
Nobel Prize: Goldin (econ)
Nobel Prize: Kariko (medicine) with Weissman
Nobel Prize: Fosse (Literature)
Links: guy who won’t fly, Climate change committee on current UK trajectory (plus Chris Stark podcast); assembly theory as prerequisite for life; Lucy Prebble on a life in writing; scrolls locked in ash being read for the first time.
I was in Amsterdam for a sustainability conference. I went by train. The net travel time by train door to door is a little longer (5 hours total), but productivity is higher (eg can work on train; comfortable) but it’s still more expensive and there are fewer time options on the London-Amsterdam route vs planes.
This is going to be hard to transition unless prices equalize. This currently seems unlikely, if so, I guess then we will have to lean into short haul electric planes. This seems viable for between 2027 and 2032. SAS are looking for 2028 for their first flights.
There have already been several sucessful test flights….
1. **Eviation's Alice Test Flight (2022)**: In September 2022, Eviation conducted a test flight with its all-electric passenger airplane, Alice. The flight lasted for eight minutes and was conducted at an altitude of 3,500 feet.
2. **Beta Technologies’ Alia Aircraft Test Flight (2023)**: Bristow conducted its first flight test with Beta Technologies’ Alia aircraft on August 22, 2023. The test involved a “qualitative evaluation” of the six-seat air taxi. The flight, which took off from Beta’s flight test center in Plattsburgh, New York, lasted about 55 minutes and included stalls, slow flight, and takeoffs/landings.
3. **University of Arkansas' Electric Motor Drive Test Flight**: Engineering researchers at the University of Arkansas achieved a significant milestone on February 20 with the successful test flight of their electric motor drive on a hybrid electric aircraft.
4. **ZeroAvia’s Hydrogen-Electric Test Flight (2023)**: On January 19, 2023, ZeroAvia conducted a test flight with the world’s largest aircraft powered by a hydrogen-electric engine. The maiden flight involved a 19-seat Dornier 228 testbed aircraft retrofitted with a full-size prototype hydrogen-electric engine…
So my guess is that electric planes will be our short haul solution. I think long term they could be chepar than fossil fuels (FF) ones, so again that will make them viable. Long haul may still depend on FF for a while.
I made time for a random connection with a sustainable urban planner. I learned Amsterdam has one of the largest teams of sustainable urbanists who are working had on overall sustainable strategy for urbanism.
I also learned that the weak social ties idea (from social sciences, Granovetter, 1973) for fostering innovation has been been more fully developed by network scientists. These are aspects of weak social ties which are an influence on why I hold mingles and meet-ups; and why I favour a dose of (semi) random meet-ups.
The theory of weak social ties posits that relationships characterized by less frequent contact or emotional closeness (weak ties), such as acquaintances, are crucial in social networks because they provide individuals with access to new information, opportunities, and broader communities beyond their close-knit groups (strong ties), thereby facilitating the spread of information, innovation, and influence through society.
Bridging Function: Weak ties often act as bridges between different social clusters or groups, facilitating the flow of information between these groups. In network terms, they help prevent the formation of "echo chambers" or overly insular communitie.
Broader Reach: While strong ties are generally limited to a smaller, close-knit group (like family or close friends), weak ties can extend across a broader spectrum of an individual's social circle, including acquaintances, colleagues, and more distant friends. This property expands an individual's reach in the social network.
Diversity of Information: Weak ties are crucial for the diffusion of novel information and innovation. Close groups (strong ties) tend to have similar knowledge and perspectives, while weak ties provide access to new information and different perspectives that are not available in one's close circle.
Job Opportunities: Granovetter's research highlighted that weak ties are more likely than strong ties to lead individuals to new job opportunities. This is because weak ties provide information about job openings that aren't already known to one's close network.
Resilience of Networks: From a structural perspective, weak ties can contribute to the resilience of social networks. They provide alternative pathways for information flow and social cohesion if stronger ties are disrupted.
Global Connectivity: In the theory of "six degrees of separation," weak ties are essential because they allow for shorter paths between any two individuals in a social network, contributing to the "small-world" phenomenon.
Social Capital: While strong ties are associated with bonding social capital (which strengthens the support within a group), weak ties contribute to bridging social capital, which helps connect diverse groups and is essential for broader social integration.
Diffusion of Influence: In studies of viral content and influence spreading, weak ties have been recognized as crucial for the rapid diffusion of information through various layers of a social network
At the sustainability conference, in my panel we were posed the question: Is there real progress to Net Zero? My answer is Yes although the speed of progress is an open one. My notes:
Yes there is real progress. It is currently fast enough? That’s an open question. At the level of the world, median scenarios now point to a world of 2.5c to 3c rises. Obvious, this is not below 2c but 10 years ago we were looking at median scenarios of 4c so it is real progress.
140+ countries have commitments and have advanced policies. This covers 90%+ of emissions.
Thousands of companies have signed up to net zero and via a science based target. This is half of the largest companies of the world and increasing every year. A decade ago this number was <100.
Climate tech investment has gone from $32bn in 2004 to over $1100bn in 2022. While we need trillions of investment, we have now gone over the 1 trillion mark.
Still, 1.5c looks increasingly hard to achieve but do not make the mistake of thinking 1.5c is a “threshold” point. 1.9c is better then 2c. 2.9c is better than 3c. The number is only a symbol of a wider movement.
We can and should be more. We should take heart that we’ve made real progress and that should not lessen the urgency but rather embolden us to know we can and do make a difference with our efforts.
I don’t really comment on the current thing. But uncertainty has been creeping up over a 10 year view, but had trended down in early 2023; I expect that will rise again.
Ray Dalio argues
“it appears to me that the odds of transitioning from the contained conflicts to a more uncontained hot world war that includes the major powers have risen from 35% to about 50% over the last two years”
He details 5 forces he sees:
the debt/money/economic force, most importantly the dynamic that occurs when there are high levels of debt and high rates of debt growth,
political conflicts within countries due to large and irreconcilable wealth and values gaps that are leading to emerging civil wars between extremists of the right and the left,
geopolitical conflicts between countries due to big changes in who has wealth and power and how to divide up wealth and power,
forceful acts of nature, most importantly droughts, floods, and pandemics (today primarily caused by climate change), and
the force of humanity’s inventiveness, most importantly in inventing new technologies (today artificial intelligence is the leading transformative technology)
Lots of people disagree, but if he is at least possibly correct in the direction of movement we are entering one of the more turbulent times for humanity.
I reflect this is a counter point to what a thinker Like Tyler Cowen is saying who is very much picking up on (5) the technology change and goes further than AI (adding in biopharma, and green energy).
Certainly the fall out from obesity drugs and AI are two of the biggest themes investors can’t stop talking about; and you can add some forms of sustainability to that mix.
A few thoughts on some recent Nobel Prizes. Jon Fosse (literature), he is famous in Norway also for his plays which follow on from a Beckett / Pinter tradition in my reading of them. I’ve not seen many but read a few.
Katalin Karikó with Drew Weissman won the Nobel (medicine) for her work on mRNA.
Karikó was sacked / demoted / ran out of money had many many hurdles during her career. This says something about the nature of how we fund (or dont fund) breakthrough science - which I discussed with Michael Nielsen and also Kanjun Qiu on my podcast earlier this year.
It seems our way of funding science and ideas is sub-optimal.
On the personal side, it also shows the level of stamina, determination, grit to develop new ways of doing things and Karikó deserves much credit for that.
Here is a Wired profile from 2020 on her.
And finally on my Nobel reflection here is Claudia Goldin (econ). I already listened to a podcast with her (so the win was not a surprise) and was familiar with her work and also the research methods of using natural experiments and tying together different elements (like cultural norms and politics).
Drawing on data for over a hundred countries, Goldin suggests there is a U-shaped relationship between economic development and female employment. As economies transitioned from agriculture to industry, female employment fell. It rose with services-led growth, since these jobs are highly respectable.
Why did female employment fall?
Goldin explains:
“The social stigma against wives working in paid manual labor outside the home is apparently widespread and strong. It almost always attaches to the work of women in male-intensive industries (e.g., mining, iron and steel), but also exists in female-intensive (e.g., clothing, textiles) arid mixed industries (e.g.. food processing).
The stigma is a simple message. Only a husband who is lazy, indolent, and entirely negligent of his family would allow his wife to do such labor…
When women are educated, particularly at the secondary level, they enter white-collar work, against which no social stigma exists”.
Perhaps the power of the Pill is one of her most famous papers. The work traces the influence of contraceptives on women’s life choices especially around work. By granting reproductive autonomy, the pill gave more educational and career freedoms to women.
Alice Evans has good explanations of her work.
The FT’s Soumaya has a profile here.
Links:
Lucy Prebble on writing life:
https://x.com/benyeohben/status/1712736137343648002?s=20
Reading from unopened scrolls (locked by volcanic ash)
https://x.com/natfriedman/status/1712470683207532906?s=20
UK CCC assessment on UK government
https://x.com/ChiefExecCCC/status/1712424247077769727?s=20
Assembly theory on the prerequisite for life - this is quite oddbal but even if there is a slight chance it is correct - is worth considering.
https://x.com/benyeohben/status/1711791205892153646?s=20
Researcher, Grimalda - wont fly and lost his job….
Really enjoyed this and excited to hear the next instalment.