Recession, when?
Recession, when? Chris Stark: my conversation on climate at Chatham House Art, Climate: Birdgirl, Ellie Harrison and me | podcast. Football: Trolls and speaking out. Mental health: stay in the Game.
Recession, when?
Art and Climate: Birdgirl, Ellie Harrison and me | podcast
Football: Trolls and standing up for what is right
Mental health: Stay in the game, random acts of kindness
Recession, when? There is confusion on how best to use economic models and forecasts. Typically, the exact forecast itself is not that most helpful part of a model. For those who make and analyse models, the creating and stressing of the models can often be more important than the final output.
Still, it’s notable to me that the economic forecasts around recession in most countries are confusing. In the Uk at the end of 2022, the median economist surveyed by Bloomberg were indicating am 80% chance of recession within 12 months. 6 months later that forecast has significantly dropped.
This in part shows the difficultly on relying on forecasts - even by superforecasters, and of course by economic experts. The change in direction of forecasts tells you things as well.
In any case for it is worth, the consensus now sees recession in the UK - this year at least - as unlikely. The US numbers are drifting up, but the most anticipated recession ever has not arrived. In the same way, many economists missed the inflation we saw in 2022 and 2023; and now recession expectations have been confounded in the UK in 2023. It’s very suggestive of how little we still understand about the complexities of our modern day economy.
That said, there is a consensus in the UK now that we have made collective policy mistakes over the last 20 years (compared to Germany or the Netherlands) and we are poorer for it. In recent times, Brexit accounts for a portion of this but the larger portion is due to other factors such as housing, regional transport, capital and R&D investment. This is what Tim Harford in the FT also concludes (there has also been a John Burdoch data visualisation) and after Sam Bowma’s more extreme view on this.
There is no quick fix here. But at least a growing consensus on some of the basic challenges. That said, as Tyler Cowen argues, the London region is still wealthy and one of the few places in the wold where ambitious people (across arts and business) can come and get things done.
This is from my live event in June at Chatham House with Chris Stark.
Chris Stark is the CEO of the UK climate change committee. This is about 1 hour of conversation and 20 minutes of Q&A from an audience at Chatham House. The focus is in part on what the investor should do but covers overall thinking on the state of climate policy and Net Zero.
Summary (via AI) is here: - Corporate net zero commitments have increased significantly in the past 5 years, reflecting greater awareness and ambition on climate change. However, many commitments lack substance or rely too heavily on cheap offsets. Investors should scrutinize net zero plans and push for real emissions reductions.
- Alignment between corporate climate plans and national/global pathways is important. Companies should focus efforts where policy support is lacking rather than easy wins like adding solar panels.
- Carbon pricing is useful but works best alongside sectoral policies and regulations. Recent US inflation legislation shows that production subsidies can also be impactful.
- More work is needed on quantifying adaptation goals and tracking progress. Improved climate risk disclosure over 5-10 year horizons would aid corporate planning.
- The "net zero" slogan has downsides, including associations with culture wars. Emphasizing co-benefits like jobs, energy security, clean air may resonate more.
- Onshore subsidies and local content requirements in the US Inflation Reduction Act could prove inflationary. The UK will need to be selective in supporting key sectors to remain competitive post-Brexit.
- Disruptive protests have kept climate prominent but may also contribute to polarization. A 'just transition' for oil producers is still lacking.
- Overall, continued focus on bipartisan climate solutions, not political extremes, is needed. Many impactful steps are non-controversial but get drowned out.
On the arts and protest side, here is a conversation I had with climate activist and bird watcher, Birdgirl, Mya-Rose Craig; and theatre maker and activist, Ellie Harrison; hosted by the Arts Council.
Artists, Activists on Climate and enviroment. In this episode, join Mya-Rose Craig, Ellie Harrison and Benjamin Yeoh as they explore the connection between art and climate change and how storytelling skills of individual artists can drive structural change at a corporate level.
Featuring:
• Mya-Rose Craig - ornithologist, environmentalist, diversity activist, as well as an author, speaker and broadcaster
• Ellie Harrison - artist, activist & author
• Benjamin Yeoh – playwright, investor and podcast host
Summary (via AI):
Here is a summary of the key points from the conversation:
- This is a podcast discussing environmental responsibility in the arts and culture sector. The three guests are Mya-Rose, Ben, and Ellie.
- They discuss what environmental responsibility means to them personally. Mya-Rose talks about campaigning and raising awareness, as well as encouraging local environmental action like rewilding. Ben discusses leading by example but also influencing systems change. Ellie tries to live modestly and thinks about the impact of her actions.
- When asked how they embed environmental ideas in their work, Mya-Rose talks about engaging youth from underrepresented backgrounds with nature. Ben discusses incorporating climate themes in his theatre work and engaging with companies on sustainability in his investment work. Ellie campaigns on public transport issues and divestment.
- They discuss different forms of environmental action from large protests to local community projects. Mya-Rose advocates bigger changes like ethical banking as well as local rewilding. Ben focuses on influencing senior leaders.
- On why the cultural sector should take action, they agree it should lead by example and reflect these issues since they affect everyone's lives.
- They debate how to best communicate to affect change. Mya-Rose discusses effective social media activism. Ben focuses on influencing leaders. Ellie uses humor and music in her art and activism.
- For actions people can take today, they suggest political engagement, ethical purchasing/investment, storytelling, and getting involved locally.
- When asked what support would help cultural organizations, they suggest identifying environmental impacts, getting guidance to address them, and funding for climate-related art projects.
- For art that affected change, they cite nature documentaries, conceptual art exposing pollution/hypocrisy, and films spotlighting funding by polluting industries.
-Football: Trolls and standing up for what is right
I am not a football fan. I follow football as my Mum follows football. You can’t understand the British unless you try and understand football (cricket and rugby, too, and perhaps Eton Fives but most of all football). Much like how you can’t understand China unless you understand food. So this essay / blog from an Arsenal footballer says a lot about some of the problems of the British and what some people in role model positions are doing.
Summary (AI): Here is a summary of the key points from Aaron Ramsdale's essay:
- Ramsdale faced a lot of criticism and doubt when he first signed for Arsenal. Many fans and pundits said he wasn't good enough and made jokes about his transfer fee and past relegations.
- He explains his unconventional path to the Premier League, being released as a teenager and experiencing multiple relegations early in his career. His former teacher encouraged him not to give up on his dreams.
- Ramsdale talks about his family, including his older brother Oliver who is gay. He feels it's important to speak out against homophobia in football.
- He describes his close relationship with Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta, who believed in him and helped him improve his game.
- Ramsdale opens up about deeply personal tragedy - his wife's miscarriage in the middle of last season. Arteta supported him through this difficult time.
- He was shocked to be kicked by a fan after beating Tottenham. It made him reflect on toxicity in football.
- Ramsdale and his wife are expecting again. He dreams of making football welcoming for all and wants his brother at Emirates when Arsenal win trophies.
Mental health: Stay in the game. I’ve shared this before. But this week, I had two conversations about mental health problems, so I thought I would re-share the story below.
There are different tools and techniques for resilience. But however you do it, staying in the game is important…. And random acts of kindness can be some of our most powerful acts….
Max struggled with anxiety, depression and addiction as a teenager. Despite their efforts to help, nothing seemed to make a difference.
At age 19, Max went to Costa Rica where he connected with an abused puppy named Chica. Caring for Chica gave Max a sense of purpose and improved his mental health.
Max decided to move to Indianapolis for a fresh start, bringing Chica with him. He was doing well until Chica was hit by a car on the street.
A young man named Kenny stopped to help, rushing Chica to the vet to save her life. This act of kindness had a huge impact on Max.
Monica Byrne argues that artists should be funded directly. She puts this in the context of US performing arts but arguments could apply to UK and elsewhere where venues have squeezed artists. Although there are also arguments at to the role of the state. WaPo opinion.