Progress Summit, UnConference

I was at the Civic Futures summit this week, co-hosted with Bennett Institute for Public Policy.

I was at the Civic Futures summit this week, co-hosted with Bennett Institute for Public Policy helping the UnConference section.

Civic Futures supports young leaders to improve public life and run a fellowship programme. (CEO: Munira Murza)

The Bennett Institute researches public policy questions using interdisciplinary work on research for a more equitable distribution of the world’s natural and social assets and the impact that technological change is having on the nature of work, community and consumption around the world. Co-run by Diane Coyle (my podcast here).

The speakers and panels were filled with Progress thinkers. Notably Tyler Cowen came to give the key note and participate.  Speakers included: Andy Haldane, Lord Sainsbury, Stian Westlake (my podcast here), Matt Clifford, Deirde McCloskey, Anton Howes (my podcast here), Tom Besley, Matt Ridley, Ben Reinhardt, Matt Clifford, Aria Babu, AI thinkers; Logan Graham, Saffron Huang, Marc Warner.  Full agenda here.

I came to help run an UnConference section for them. Notes on the UnConference are below. 

Tyler argued that among 17 other factors he would highlight fossil fuels and machines as a driver of growth historically.  Looking forward today he see three areas of very promising progress (and that stagnation for his next period may be over) 

• Biomedine (obesity, mRNA)

• Computational power (AI)

• Green Energy (solar, wind, other bets like mini-nuclear)

He urges Brits to be more optimistic. South England is still one of the only areas in the world where you can start ideas and get things done. 

In reply to the panel he also noted that the revealed preferences of immigrants still places the UK as a top 5 destination. 

Diane Coyle noted climate and biodiversity challenges. Sam Bowman argued for the housing theory of everything and to focus on growth. David Edgerton suggested we didn’t know what innovation worked and was somewhat growth skeptic. 

My glimpsed personal highlight of the conference was spotting Tyler Cowen and Ian Leslie discuss the Beatles and have 2 minutes listening in to them. 

Recordings will be available later of the main panels so I will highlight the UnConference. I based the session on OpenSpace principles (thanks, Improbable).  Message me if you want my facilitator notes on that (thanks also Devon Zeugel)

In short, unlike traditional conferences with pre-set agendas and passive listeners, an UnConference invites all attendees to participate actively. Everyone is encouraged to propose topics, lead discussions, and contribute to conversations in a meaningful way.

While a conventional conference treats attendees like a passive audience to be entertained by the organizers, the unconference format gives everyone a say.

Tyler Cowen’s Emergent Ventures cohorts have an annual UnConference. This week I know Google HQ hosted scifoo which is an interdisciplinary science UnConference. 

I’m strongly in favour of the format. 

These are the sessions that were suggested at our (short section) for UnConference:

• A capsule of forecasting (against doomster forecasts)

• More an employment puzzle than a productivity puzzle 

• Demand side policies for innovation. An under utilised tool? 

• Supply side reforms under a Labour government 

• A pro-baby culture / how do we have sex equality / sufficient investment in babies and care of the elderly 

• Enlightenment 2.0.  What I learned running an enlightenment salon for the last 8 months. 

• How to do a coup etat (peacefully) 

• Intergenerational inequality 

• How to raise the status of domestic sphere / GDP + Well being. 

• State Capacity 

• Why sacrifice human capital ?

• Explicit culture changes and how do we make them ? 

• Is the problem innovation or how to scale it 

• Did Meritocracy cause the great stagnation ?

• Britain should be more religious. 

• Is the answer undemocractic?

• Progress and effects on the “nuclear family”

• How do we develop the study of progress and share our work ?

These are some bullets onother conversations I had (the conference are the people!)

• Effects of GLP-1 (obesity) and what it mean for progress. 

• Why lawns are bad (H/T James Substack)

• In praise of voluntary abstinence of alcohol, evangelical Protestant thinking; and a magazine on Ireland, Fitzwilliam; transubstantiation 

• Climate, AI resilience; Centre for 

• Also the fun of Real Tennis 

• Reporting on Russia in the 1990s, why UK companies list in the US; what is happening with big Tech

• Housing policy, planning and permitting unlocks 

• Regional bus transportation 

• Advanced market commitments m, economic pull mechanism for development. 

• Fringe theatre; when to leave a play; comedy is under rated and power of story 

• When do we defend bodily autonomy, when drugs should be legal; disability rights; why Britney Spears case is applicable or not; externality harms 

• When you want to be friends with someone who wants to eat only mackerel for a week

• How to answer the job interview question of what your best attribute is 

• Whether NHS charge at point of care misunderstands the intangibles cost; under investment in health and whether data can make a difference 

• What cultural behaviors we might delate (the onus to bring gifts when house visiting, whether to choose different items on a menu). 

• Intransitivity of moral choices (cf Temkin) 

• Why the UK or nowhere else has replicated the VC of Y-combinator 

• Net Zero; sea grass farming; CRO start-up business model

• What innovation agencies  should be aspire to be

• Fellowships; how to choose and live a good life. 

Final thoughts on the summit. There is now a slightly more Co-ordinated movement thinking about Progress studies and it’s various pillars compared to a few years ago 

It’s a good time for the young and enthused to look at this. Frontier areas of progress seems to naturally attract certain kinds of people. If you are interested in potential public life do check out Civic Future and all of the various speakers are a good point to step off into this area.  Many of the people work in frontier areas: climate, AI, and biotech.

Some other tweet notes on the summt:

@Aria_Babu argues for childcare being a top 10 problem More expensive than US. Supply problem. Why does no one want to be a child minder ? (1) strict ratios (stricter than Nordics) (2) restrictive curriculum (3) paper work (4) planning

https://twitter.com/benyeohben/status/1679800431948464128?s=20

Andy Haldane argues optimistically: After travelling back from Yorkshire Local leadership. Impressed by local leadership Industrial policy. There is industrial policy. Heritage, respectful but not bound by it. Anchor institutions remain strong

Deidre McClosky: Let people be free Let them build on fields Let them open hair salons Let them be free Government should not choose winners or losers An economy by the people, of the people, for the people…

Quick hits:

Gavin Drake’s problems with the Church of England Synod.

~90 superforecasters and ~80 domain experts debate and forecast low probability, distant in time questions about human extinction! Even more than topline results, it's a fascinating study of persuasion and beliefs. Link: https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt

AI translates 5,000-year-old cuneiform tablets - Akkadian - it was the mother tongue of the Akkadian Empire, which arose around 2300 B.C. Link: https://twitter.com/benyeohben/status/1678441576471691264?s=20