Energy, Climate: 23 observations
If you are about on Jan 3 in London come and see me perform. Would be great to see you. Details here. I know it is early in the year but would be great if you could come. Thanks and good to meet everyone who came to the meet-up.
I’ve been dwelling on John Arnold and 23 observations on energy.
(John is a philanthropist, who has energy and investing experience but whose foundation is much more broadly on evidence based philanthropy. Jenn Doleac joined his team. I had a podcast with her on evidence based policy on policing and crime earlier in 2023).
These are his 23 observations:
1) Cleantech VC went from disfavored to overpriced to something in the middle
2) Interest in a carbon tax disappeared
3) No more graphs with price of renewables going to zero
4) Opposition to nuclear faded
5) GOP politicians broadly acknowledge global warming from human activities
6) European crisis a reminder transition also requires energy to be affordable, reliable, secure
7) Interstate pipeline projects of any kind (oil, gas, carbon) became uninvestable
8) Realization that US energy independence did not isolate the US from int’l markets
9) Recognition of need for interregional transmission lines
10) Electricity storage became an industry
11) Carbon capture became an industry
12) Growing local backlash against renewables development
13) Electricity demand growing for first time in 15+ years
14) Utilities struggling with reliability given growing renewables + demand growth
15) Nat gas industry forced to deal with methane leaks
16) Automakers (reluctantly) make significant commitment to EVs
17) Rebirth of domestic manufacturing related to energy transition
18) Permitting reform is a hot topic
19) Large projects with long payback times hit hard by inflation/rates, benefitting shale
20) Oil companies committing real money to the energy transition
21) Investors demand oil companies distribute the majority of earnings
22) Producers not only talking about peak shale oil production nearing but behaving like it
23) SPR depleted to lowest level since 1983 for reasons that weren’t very strategic
When thinking about the mechanisms of climate impact, you want to choose a lever or a theory of change (or aka as a mechanism of action) to influence.
You want this mechanism to be impactful and for you to be able to influence this mechanism. We can argue about the exact quantity of impact and the mechanisms but if you are unclear about your mechanisms you will not be impactful. If there is no mechanism then you will be shouting into the void.
I came to understand this better after my podcast with activist Catherine Howarth and her use of Rules for Radicals* (end for more). But also in speaking to David Ruebain about the disability rights movement.* Community organising is one way, but there are other levers for change too. You should potentially choose those that are most suited to your skills and temperament.
Let’s look at some of John’s comments. I observe some of these observations tie in with changing or acknowledging political economy.
2) Interest in a carbon tax disappeared
4) Opposition to nuclear faded
5) GOP (right leaning) politicians broadly acknowledge global warming from human activities
12) Growing local backlash against renewables development
7) Interstate pipeline projects of any kind (oil, gas, carbon) became uninvestable
4) Opposition to nuclear faded
18) Permitting reform is a hot topic
While there are technocractic challenges for a carbon tax, it’s very well supported by economists (both left and right). But those with understanding (or the increased understanding) of the political challenges - many voters hate the idea, many simply think the idea would fail in practice - have backed away. This is a theme which comes up in my two podcasts with Chris Stark (CEO of UK Climate Change Committee). A carbon tax is well supported by big oil energy. This may say something about both the chances big oil think a carbon tax has, and what the practical reality would have on this businesses. But IF you did think this is the right way to go then working on the political economy would potentially be the way to make this more viable.
Nuclear is also a political economy area. There have been technical advances and investment. There are regulatory barriers still. But much of the debate has political roots. I note this is US-centric because, eg, Germany still has strongly negative sentiment towards nuclear in a way that, eg neighbour France, does not. Again those who support nuclear should be working on the politics of the issues, as well as potentially the innovation. Germany would likely not accept nuclear unless their social political culture took a change.
So if your theory of change revolves around a political economy mechanism then that is according where you can act.
Look at
18) Permitting reform is a hot topic
If you identify or believe that the bottle neck for green infrastructure is significant then you can act accordingly at the policy, politician or citizen level. This could be a big win but here in the UK it would be around potentially building on the bad parts of the “green belt”, but also making it easier for green infrastructure to be built by making the planning process less onerous.
Other of these observations tie in much more with market forces development (some times nudged by government).
Some are developing markets and innovation.
Some are investment cycle.
Some are capital discipline and preference forced by investors (and by pension fund return needs behind that)
10) Electricity storage became an industry
11) Carbon capture became an industry
20) Oil companies committing real money to the energy transition
21) Investors demand oil companies distribute the majority of earnings
1) Cleantech VC went from disfavored to overpriced to something in the middle
If you think innovation is a major unlock, you could focus on VC or helping develop battery storage. If you think your skills might be in influencing oil companies then you might be on the investor side or creating analysis to support your views.
I meet people who want to do something but haven’t thought about where their skills and influence might lie. As we suggested in our theatre piece on climate, Thinking Bigly, there is so much to potentially do rather than be paralysed in wanting to have the “most impact”, you should be empowered to do something in any of the areas which you have skills and might help.
One other project for 2024 along with my theatre work is the UnConference in Education. If you are at all interested in schooling or unschooling please come. It’s free. This is what we have to say about Educating Otherwise:
Educating Otherwise: UnConference 27 April 2024
We are hosting an UnConference on non-mainstream education.
Families, educators, and curious people are welcome to attend for free. Travel grants and prizes available. We aim for 100 curious people to come along.
Date: Sat, 27 April 2024 | 9.30am to 4.30pm
Venue: Conway Hall, London (near Holborn Tube)
What is our aim?
The non-mainstream education community is large but fragmented. There are few routes to share good ideas and best practices in person. There is little focused on the young people themselves. We aim to:
enable the non-mainstream education community to share best practice ideas
build a network for home education and non-mainstream education generally to enable talent and diversity to thrive
potentially link up peer mentors, career and university mentors to help young people explore all the options open to them
identify and ascertain particular needs and opportunities
What is an UnConference?
Unlike traditional conferences with pre-set agendas and passive listeners, an UnConference invites all attendees to participate actively.
Everyone is encouraged to propose topics, lead discussions, and contribute to conversations in a meaningful way.
While a conventional conference treats attendees like a passive audience to be entertained by the organizers, the UnConference format gives everyone a say by building something together.
UnConferences are choose-your-own-adventure. At any moment there will be multiple talks happening.
The UnConference board is the centre of the event. The board is a large grid representing the schedule. The time slots start out blank. We fill them in the opening circle but they can change and combine throughout the time (especially in longer sessions).
Example UnConferences are:
Chatham House Sustainability Accelerator;
the Google-hosted Sci Foo
Further notes on an UnConference from Devon Zeugel are here. Ben Yeoh’s notes available on request.
Why this format?
The UnConference format is well suited to self-directed people and is inclusive of young people and some atypical needs.
This offers a unique opportunity for young people to meet up and contribute to the UnConference. There are few forums for them to do so.
The format is good at people-matching. Those with similar interests may go to the same talks. The loose structure is good at surfacing unusual ideas as people are encouraged to raise their own ideas and have conversations.
Who can attend?
Everybody! In particular we would encourage young people and their families to attend but anyone who has an interest in education will enjoy coming along.
The non-mainstream includes many educational ideas that range—non-definitively—across: Home education, Education Otherwise Than At School, flexischool, unschool, microschools, digital education, pedagogy in isolated and refugee situations, independent research. Really anything to do with education and learning counts.
There is no minimum age but young people will need to be accompanied by a guardian. The venue is mostly accessible (see the venue guide for wheelchairs; the format is neurodiverse friendly). We will try to be accommodating but won’t have special quiet rooms or baby feeding spaces. That said, there is plenty of space to be with a baby amongst us.
We will also be looking for volunteer helpers to set up and tidy up on the day. Let us know if interested in this.
Booking tickets—FREE
Travel Grants
We are offering up to 20 travel grants of £50 for those who would otherwise struggle to attend. The form to apply is available here in early 2024 and should take less than 10 mins to fill out. If there are more than 20 applicants then grants will be decided by lottery.
Likely questions are: Why are you interested in coming to the UnConference? (Tweet length)
(Optional)
What projects or ideas are you working on?
What is something you think you understand about the world which is often misunderstood?
What change would you make to Home Education in the UK to make it better?
Anything else you’d like to share?
Essay and Blog prizes
We are offering up to 10 prizes of £100 for work relating to the theme of non-mainstream education. Everyone is welcome to take part but young people are particularly encouraged to submit entries and at least 5 prizes are intended for young people.
These could be essays, videos, blogs or talks about non-mainstream (or even mainstream pedagogy) education.
Submissions are open in early 2024 and will close end of March. More ideas here.
You could use your blog or essay as the basis for a session at the UnConference if you come.
Winning entries can be shared online after the UnConference to allow as many people as possible to take part in the conversation.
About us
Ben Yeoh gained a grant from Tyler Cowen’s Emergent Ventures to host the UnConference. There is no particular organisational endorsement or sponsorship for the event. Ben’s family has one son in home education. He writes a Substack, Then Do Better, and hosts a podcast where he chats about a broad range of topics. Two podcasts in this area are his chat with Naomi Fisher (self-directed education) and his chat with teacher Jade O’Brien (mainstream primary).
Catherine Oliver swore she’d never be a teacher—she saw what hard work it was by watching her own mum. But she fell in love with home education during the pandemic and hasn’t looked back. She writes How We Homeschool, where she shares what home education can look like for families all around the world. The aim for How We Homeschool is to bring home educators together to share what works, and the Educating Otherwise conference is the perfect way to make this happen ‘in real life’.
*This is more on Rules for Radicals:
Alinksy argues and suggests many tactics:
The Purpose of Power: Alinsky's primary focus is on the acquisition and use of power. He argues that the powerless must organize to gain power and effect social change. He sees power not as an end in itself, but as a means to achieve social justice.
The Ethics of Means and Ends: Alinsky discusses the ethical considerations in the struggle for power. He suggests that the morality of a means depends on whether it succeeds in achieving a desired end, emphasizing a pragmatic approach.
Rules for Tactics: The book is famous for its "rules" for radicals, which are essentially tactics for effective organizing and campaigning. These include advice like "use the enemy's own rules against them," "ridicule is man's most potent weapon," and "a good tactic is one your people enjoy."
Organizing the Community: Alinsky places significant emphasis on community organizing as a tool for change. He discusses the importance of uniting people around common issues and the need for organizers to be deeply embedded within the communities they aim to mobilize.
The Role of the Organizer: Alinsky outlines the qualities and roles of a successful organizer. He highlights the importance of being adaptable, understanding the dynamics of power in society, and being able to motivate and inspire people.
Communication and Relationships: Alinsky stresses the importance of effective communication and building relationships in organizing. He advises organizers to meet people where they are, in terms of their understanding and experiences, to create effective alliances.
Realistic Goals: Alinsky advocates for setting realistic and achievable goals, arguing that small wins help to build momentum and empower communities.
Long-term Perspective: While focusing on specific issues, Alinsky also emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective in the fight for social justice, understanding that real change often requires sustained effort over time.
And here is some on disability rights history in the UK.
Post-War Rehabilitation and Advocacy: After World War II, there was a shift in public concern towards the large number of ex-servicemen and civilians left disabled by the war. This led to increased rehabilitation services and advocacy for disabled people's rights.
Direct Action and Campaigning: Inspired by the civil rights movement in America, disabled groups in the UK began to take direct action against discrimination, poor access, and inequality from the 1960s and 70s onwards. This period saw the emergence of a social model of disability, which focused on societal barriers rather than individual impairments.
Silent Marches and Protests: A notable event was the 'silent reproach' march by disabled ex-servicemen in 1951. These types of peaceful yet impactful demonstrations played a significant role in raising public awareness and advocating for change.
Legal and Policy Advocacy: Disability rights groups used legal strategies and engaged in policy advocacy to push for legislative change. This involved lobbying, public campaigning, and working with policymakers to draft and support disability rights legislation.
Shift to Inclusion and Universal Design: The movement advocated for the inclusion of disabled people in all aspects of society and the adoption of universal design in architecture and urban planning. This meant creating environments accessible to everyone, regardless of their physical abilities.
Cultural Impact and Paralympics: The disability rights movement also had cultural impacts, like the establishment of the Paralympic Games, which began as a rehabilitation method and grew into a major international sporting event.
Links:
You can read Charlie Munger’s book (great insights) for free here: https://www.stripe.press/poor-charlies-almanack
More on what AI can good / not good for: