Bluets, Muddle through Econ, Education notes

Education: Initial UnConference notes/ Economy: Macro charts, jobs, GDP, copper, freight. Poetry/Theatre: Bluets. Links

• Education: Initial UnConference notes 

• Economy: Macro charts, jobs, GDP, copper, freight

• Poetry/Theatre: Bluets

Links: Poetry review review, metascience grants; remote working/women

Thanks to everyone who came to the UnConference (alternative education). There was excellent feedback. I think I would be minded to do this again if we can find a suitable inexpensive venue. Let me know, if you know one.

Session write-ups are still coming in. There are notes from three of the sessions in this blog (thanks Catherine): notes on Do Children Still Learn From Books (H/T Leah Boden ), Lifelong Learning (H/T Bryan Kam) and Transformational educational experiences.

I do think, even more than content and conversations shared, the social networking, and the engagement of the format were very valuable. Some attendees had been to an OpenSpace-type format before, but quite a few had not and everyone new to the format were pleased.

I regularly check in on some macro economic charts to give a sense of where the world and the country is going. I hear surprise about how the UK, the US and many countries seem to be muddling through even despite the doom and gloom we hear in the media. I’ve previously focused on sustainability-type data, but it’s worth skimming some other economic data as well.

I will focus on the UK and US, but you can skim this type of data everywhere. One important factor behind the vague muddle-through is that long-term unemployment remains at historic lows. While there are caveats in the the data, it does mean a vast number of people who want jobs, have a job. This is UK data since 1970s.

And you can see the same in the US. You have to go back to the 1950s for a better unemployment rate.

This is one of the challenges in Spain (10 -15% unemployed) and to some extent Italy (c. 10%) and France (8%). IMF data below.

Two broad indicators of trade and industry are copper, and the Baltic Dry index. BDI.

The BDI measures the supply and demand for bulk cargo, which is often just one kind of raw material per shipment.

Movements in the BDI index give insight into the demand for metals, minerals, grains and building materials. Since the BDI materials are raw material inputs for making end products, the index is viewed by many as a leading economic indicator of industrial production and economic activity

And the BDI suggests world trade is doing OK. Again a lot of puts and takes, but muddle-through is OK.

There are limitations on copper, but the theory on looking at copper goes:

What Is Doctor Copper? The term Doctor Copper is market lingo for this base metal that is reputed to have a "Ph.D. in economics" because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy—from homes and factories to electronics and power generation and transmission—demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. This demand is reflected in the market price of copper.

And copper demand is also looking OK.

Created with TradingView

The latest IMF outlook posits “steady and slow growth”. This is muddle-through but means most countries are growing a little. Hence this broad muddle-through situation.

This is quite a change from 12 to 24 months ago when many economists were predicting recession (or negative growth, and job losses). In some ways it is more dangerous for the economy when people are unconcerned. Presumably the negative signals by economists means some business/people decided to be more cautious and helped negate the possible recession; but still the base case should likely be some more muddle-through.

IMF forecasts:

The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023. A slight acceleration for advanced economies—where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025—will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025. The forecast for global growth five years from now—at 3.1 percent—is at its lowest in decades. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually.

The global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. … explains that changes in mortgage and housing markets over the prepandemic decade of low interest rates moderated the near-term impact of policy rate hikes….indicates how dimmer prospects for growth in China and other large emerging market economies will weigh on trading partners….

Advanced economies are pretty sluggish but most are not negative…

As an aside, I do think it’s notable how gold and bitcoin are at or near all-time highs. It may say something about people’s trust in money, also the ability to try and move out (China, Russia, Middle East), and geopolitics which does remain at somewhat heightened risk.

I am looking forward to seeing how the poem Bluets (Maggie Nelson) will be staged in London’s Royal Court (in May/June). In many ways, this should be a US staging (as the writer is firmly American and the writing I think stems from a US tradition more than a UK one) but perhaps it says something still about the vibrancy of UK theatre and the willingness to tackle modern work.

I like and admire Bluets. I gain insights on re-reading on occasion although it is one of those works which will defy absolute and definitive readings.

Nelson will be in London, and she is famously not on much social media. She is known for life writing works on modern family, also gender. This is her podcast with Ezra Klein in 2021.

This is GPT on Bluets:

"Bluets" is a poetic meditation by Maggie Nelson, known for its unique blend of personal narrative, philosophical inquiry, and lyrical exploration, all centered around the color blue. Its significance and appeal lie in several key aspects:

1. Form and Style: Nelson's "Bluets" takes an innovative form, consisting of 240 numbered prose poems. This format allows Nelson to weave together a tapestry of thoughts that are both deeply interconnected and fragmentary. The use of prose poetry allows for a fluid and expansive style of expression that straddles the line between poetic language and philosophical discourse.

2. Themes and Content: At its core, "Bluets" explores the nature of suffering, desire, and the human experience through the lens of the color blue. The color becomes a motif through which Nelson examines personal loss, romantic desire, and the search for beauty in the midst of pain. This thematic exploration makes the work universally relatable and deeply personal.

3. Emotional and Intellectual Engagement: Nelson's writing challenges the reader to think critically about the connections between emotional states and aesthetic experiences. The book is as much an intellectual inquiry as it is an emotional outpouring, inviting readers to ponder their own relationships with color, pain, and beauty.

4. Cultural and Philosophical References: Nelson integrates references to many other writers and philosophers, such as Leonard Cohen, Wittgenstein, and Goethe, who have also mused on the color blue. This intertextuality adds depth to her exploration, situating her personal reflections within a broader cultural and philosophical conversation.

5. Impact on Contemporary Literature: "Bluets" has been influential in contemporary literature, particularly within the genre of the lyric essay. It has been celebrated for its bold and experimental approach to form and narrative, inspiring other writers to explore similar hybrid forms that blend personal narrative with philosophical exploration.

And some quotes to give you a flavour:

“I remember that day very clearly: I had received a phone call. A friend had been in an accident. Perhaps she would not live. She had very little face, and her spine was broken in two places. She had not yet moved; the doctor described her as “a pebble in water.” I walked around Brooklyn and noticed that the faded peri-winkle of the abandoned Mobil gas station on the corner was suddenly blooming. In the baby-shit yellow showers at my gym, where snow sometimes fluttered in through the cracked gated windows, I noticed that the yellow paint was peeling in spots, and a decent, industrial blue was trying to creep in. At the bottom of the swimming pool, I watched the white winter light spangle the cloudy blue and I knew together they made God. When I walked into my friend’s hospital room, her eyes were a piercing, pale blue and the only part of her body that could move. I was scared. So was she. The blue was beating.”

and,

“156. Why is the sky blue? -A fair enough question, and one I have learned the answer to several times. Yet every time I try to explain it to someone or remember it to myself, it eludes me. Now I like to remember the question alone, as it reminds me that my mind is essentially a sieve, that I am mortal.

157. The part I do remember: that the blue of the sky depends on the darkness of empty space behind it. As one optics journal puts it, "The color of any planetary atmosphere viewed against the black of space and illuminated by a sunlike star will also be blue." In which case blue is something of an ecstatic accident produced by void and fire.”

If you want to tackle some modern poetry, give Bluets a go.

Links:

UK grants for metascience. (Stian Westlake) (Although I think you do have to be an org).

A review of the poetry review from academic and writer Victoria Moul.

How Great Britain’s national grid ran virtually without fossil fuels for an hour.

Soymaya Keynes on remote working, how helpful or not for women (FT, can send you gift link)