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AI Ben Digital Legacy

Next mingle. A week in global investments. Second order Ukraine impacts. Sustainability, arts links.

Benjamin Yeoh
Mar 13
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Share this post
AI Ben Digital Legacy
benyeoh.substack.com

Thanks to everyone who came to my show on Friday.  It was great.  If you can, tell me what worked and/or what you thought could improve. I’m unsure when or if the show will have another outing. I do have a recording - let me know, if you’d like to see that.

My next Mingle meet-up is March 31. I’m bringing pizza and some visitors from abroad should be coming. Sign up here.

  • “AI Ben” as digital legacy

  • 100K prizes for new blogs this year

  • Global Investments: nickel, COVID, biotech, tech…

  • Food, energy, second order impacts from Ukraine 

  • BBC reporting from Ukraine frontlines

  • Excess Death Lancet study suggesting UK similar to France, Germany

  • Theatre Unconference (D&D) coming up, 19-21 March

  • Sustainability Jobs; carbon shorting, UK heating/building strategy; digital intangibles

  • Endurance (Shackleton) shipwreck found

  • Mark Ravenhill play writing podcast; Haiku, train jokes

  • Next Mingle, 31 March

One new element of the show was the idea of “AI Ben” as a form of digital legacy. This involves feeding all my works into a machine learning algorithm such as GPT-3 and thus producing a digital form of myself which would last beyond my life.  I was surprised that everyone voted for this idea. No one seemed worried about this prospect. In terms of possibility, I think it’s a reality now where sophisticated programmes with enough data to work on can produce this “version of a person”.  Games and movie studios are already using the technology.

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
Giving Characters Life With GPT3 — FABLE - The Future of Storytelling
fable-studio.com/behind-the-sce…

March 13th 2022

We (I say we, but it’s only me and whatever the theatre provides for the show) had a technical disaster earlier in the day leaving my (theatre produced) technician indisposed. It was looking like I might not even have an operator for the night.  (It was scheduled as a 2 hour or so tech and then I went back to work). This highlighted the strong “resilience” of my show as I could basically run it myself once I had programmed one lighting state. It was a tip told to me years ago about solo-ing and bringing outside shows to theatre.

A similar idea is how much you write into a script and how much you let other theatre makers interpret what you write. Samuel Beckett was (and his estate is) famously strict. On the other end, devised pieces barely use a script. 

As aside, theatre-making is a huge team enterprise and I think most other organisations can learn from how the best of theatre works.  The blend of creativity, operations and team work is immense. 

I was asked how hard it was to do. I mostly worked in evening hours and so it didn’t seem impossibly hard to do. I suppose this is a general theory of Ben, many tasks require “execution” but they are not necessarily technically difficult. You may learn skills but you don’t need 10,000 hours of practise. Like a podcast. Almost everyone reading this letter could make one if they want to. Same with blogging.  In fact, I definitely encourage you to. And if you are thinking about long-term or sustainability you can enter these awards.

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
Now is the time to start a blog! If you have long-termism, effective altruism or quirky ideas in general - you could win 100K.
Home - The Blog Prizeeffectiveideas.org

March 7th 2022

1 Like

The global environment is different today than even last year and certainly 5 years ago. To glimpse a week of global investments - of course everything downstream of Ukraine from: neon, to wheat, to geopolitics, to food, to policy and humanitarian challenges.  (25-90% of high grade neon used for computing chips if produced in Ukraine, dpending on which report you believe)

Day to day investment life is very busy.

Nickel markets. The background to this has some traders/investors (eg Cliff Asness) fuming.

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
Wow. Nickel price.
Image

March 8th 2022

2 Likes

China, Hong Kong and the latest COVID wave. COVID is far from over and it’s particularly impacting parts of Asia at the moment.

What is the future of trends in technology? Buzz words: cloud computing, metaverse, crypto, web3; there was a major investment banking conference on technology. These happen every month, if not almost every week. Company management teams and investors debate the latest ideas. While some of the frontier remains in VC and private companies, there is still plenty in public markets. I hear the airBNB CEO made a good case for the role of “experience” in our lives.

Where is biotech and healthcare going? What’s true of Tech is true of healthcare (and in fact most major sectors, there’s a conference every week/month where the largest, most innovative companies meet with investors). Our ability to address health continues to progress and is better this year than 5 years ago and 5 years before that etc… It’s perhaps one reason why I remain cautiously optomistic about progress as I’ve seen so much on health over the years.

The rising chances of recession.  So many emails on this. There are some models which use bond yields and those are flashing with very high risks of European recession (although others put little weight on those models). This is highly topical and debated.

And so that’s only a tiny glimpse into the heated world of equity (and debt) markets…


The war in Ukraine is going to have plenty of second and third order impacts we are only glimpsing now.

Most immediately, I’m thinking about food and energy prices, in particular in the short term.   Longer term, geopolitics, energy security, defence etc. are also all going to change. 

Take food:

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
Food input prices.
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March 10th 2022

And look at how much poor households spend on food.

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
Food spending across income ranges. Lowest quintiles spent 30% income on food in 2020. Will rise this year.
Image

March 10th 2022

My Mum switched off all her standby equipment last month and she tells me saved at least £7. Energy bills are more than doubling for some people and £2000 to £4000 for heating is now a typical range. 

The poorest 5th quintile of the population spend 30-40% of income on food.  When you put food and energy together the cost of living crisis in the poor is going to be extreme.  

My guess is that rich nation governments are going to have to step in and support the poor.

This might be the case globally to some degree. 

Away from the Ukraine, I will be podcasting Stian Westlake soon. (Stian’s first book was Capitalism without Capital (also with Jonathan Haskel, blog on it here) and he is ex-NESTA (impact and innovation agency) and now at Royal Statistical Society.) His co-authored new book is out on March 21.  If you are in London and want to come to the book launch that evening let me know will send you link. 

Let me know if you have questions.


Excess deaths due to COVID.  I’m unsure if the methodology is completely sound here but this latest Lancet paper (so is peer reviewed) suggests UK deaths are about the same as France and Germany.  Norway is much better than average.  This story is not over eg Hong Kong is not looking good at the moment. 

Twitter avatar for @drraghibaliDr Raghib Ali MD(Epi) MPH FRCP (UK) @drraghibali
V. important paper published in the Lancet - the first peer-reviewed global estimates of excess deaths (the most reliable way to compare Covid deaths) over first 2 years of pandemic with findings that will surprise many & correct five widespread misconceptions / assumptions: 1/9

March 11th 2022

2,802 Retweets6,034 Likes

The big theatre unconference of the year is happening again soon.  If you’ve not been before, but want to have some thoughtful conversations about the state of theatre then do go.  

Twitter avatar for @DandDUKDevoted & Disgruntled @DandDUK
"I love D&D because I meet other creative people who want to build a better future." - @benyeohben We're celebrating our #HumansofDandD in the lead up to the 17th annual D&D on 19-21 March Find out why Ben loves D&D on our website:
devotedanddisgruntled.com/devoted-disgru…
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March 10th 2022

2 Retweets1 Like

Sustainability academic finance jobs:

“We are seeking to appoint two new Senior Research Associates as part of the Oxford Sustainable Finance Group (OxSFG).”

OxSFG is multidisciplinary and works globally across asset classes, finance professions, and with different parts of the financial system.

Twitter avatar for @bencaldecottBen Caldecott @bencaldecott
We are seeking to appoint two new Senior Research Associates as part of the @UniofOxford #SustainableFinance Group. We're the largest such centre globally and are working to be the best place for research and teaching on sustainable finance and investment:
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecruit…
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March 11th 2022

18 Retweets41 Likes

This could be quite negatively triggering for some but this BBC reporting from Ukraine frontlines.  A glimpse into the live horror of war. 

Twitter avatar for @sommervilletvQuentin Sommerville @sommervilletv
If you don't recognise these tactics, then you haven't been paying attention. From Kharkiv's frontline, #Ukraine @dcinfocus and Feras. With thanks to our local team. @BBCNews @BBCWorld Graphic content warning.

March 10th 2022

18,057 Retweets41,663 Likes

On some marvels of human exploration.  Dan Snow’s team finds the wreck of Shackleton’s ship the Endurance.  Note the wonderful sea creatures who live on the ship now. 

Twitter avatar for @thehistoryguyDan Snow @thehistoryguy
We have super high definition film of the wreck, multi beam sonar and a hugely accurate laser model. Nothing has been touched or retrieved. #Endurance22 is coming home.

March 9th 2022

2,888 Retweets16,260 Likes

Inflation thinking from a top US economist thinker. 

Twitter avatar for @jasonfurmanJason Furman @jasonfurman
The goods to services inflation handoff began in February as core services inflation exceeded durable goods inflation for the first month in nearly a year. Durables could easily turn negative the year but services have more room to grow and are 5X the weight. Net effect?
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March 10th 2022

56 Retweets147 Likes

Insightful paper on how companies with significant in house digital capabilities might be more productive.

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
Larger firms with in-house digital expertise seem to potentially have higher productivity.
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ESCoE @ESCoEorg

Are digital-using UK firms more productive? So consider ESCoE Research Associates @DianeCoyle1859 @d_vidnguyen @mtongkoecklin in their eponymous blog & paper published today on the ESCoE website. Read the blog here, with links to the full paper: https://t.co/A75uGjPXZS https://t.co/iEMMQIK090

March 10th 2022

1 Retweet1 Like

Mark Ravenhill’s latest play writing podcast episode:

Twitter avatar for @MarkRavenhill2Mark Ravenhill @MarkRavenhill2
Blimey! It’s episode 3 of my podcast. Please listen and share. 37 Plays Podcast... with Danusia Samal - The 37 Plays Podcast | Podcast on Spotify
open.spotify.com/episode/3FHDjK…

March 9th 2022

6 Retweets23 Likes

Chris Stark and the Climate Change Committee on the UK’s heat and building strategy.

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
Insightful analysis from @ChiefExecCCC and team on heat and buildings in UK with a focus on: 5 questions: the level of ambition, the coherence of the approach, whether there are any gaps, what actions are needed on enablers, and how to manage near-term risks…

Chris Stark @ChiefExecCCC

Today we publish an assessment of the UK Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy. With the shocking oil and gas price spike this is suddenly one of the most important consumer issues - most homes and offices are currently heated with fossil fuels. https://t.co/QZ4JWMd3rl

March 9th 2022

1 Like

Have an idea to reduce nuclear war risk?

Twitter avatar for @leopoldaschLeopold Aschenbrenner @leopoldasch
Send your proposals our way too!
ftxfuturefund.org/apply/

tylercowen @tylercowen

Who is working to limit nuclear war risk? Please leave your suggestions in the comments: https://t.co/g0jsmhbMym

March 6th 2022

11 Retweets66 Likes

Are experts OK at forecasting?

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
Interesting work. I sense (without evidence) that this might be particularly true in"liquid" markets. eg, biotech investors forecast drug approvals, dates + probability. Easier to train investors in forecasting than generalists in biotech/biology mechanisms.

Arb @ArbResearch

Our first public work is out! We review the idea that the very best generalist forecasters can beat experts at predicting events *in their own domain of expertise*. https://t.co/lrALO7pudW

March 7th 2022

1 Like

UK may not need as much oil and gas as you think….

Twitter avatar for @ChiefExecCCCChris Stark @ChiefExecCCC
The declining role of oil and gas in achieving UK Net Zero
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March 6th 2022

55 Retweets162 Likes

Haiku:

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
summer grass all that remains of a soldier’s dream 夏草や 兵どもが 夢の跡 Natsukusa ya | Tsuwamonodomo ga | Yume no ato ~ Basho (c. 1689)

March 5th 2022

1 Retweet1 Like

And jokes:

Twitter avatar for @SpittingyarnAnoushka @Spittingyarn
Spike has been leaving jokes on the @TfL network, today. Hope they give someone a little lift. #raok
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March 5th 2022

5 Retweets17 Likes

And finally, Harvard Endowment group on shorting as a tool, contra Jason Mitchell.

At some point, I need to write up the complexity of what both sides are agreeing on, or not agreeing upon, because I am not sure most casual observers understand the arguments. (I have gift subs, if you can’t get the article)

Twitter avatar for @benyeohbenBenjamin Yeoh @benyeohben
FT Letter on possible impacts of shorting and carbon (note both sides on this debate acknowledge this is not a first order real impact on carbon on the planet, but if there are other impacts via a cost of capital channnel).
Subscribe to read | Financial TimesNews, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publicationft.com

March 13th 2022

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