I was a failed scrabble champion | COVID vaccines | London rivers short story
-Short Story on techno-mage London Rivers
-Winnie Li writing workshops
-Learning from losing at Scrabble
-COVID vaccine and treatment updates
-US 50% not willing to vaccinate
-Speaking with Amazon and Blackstone re: sustainability
I’ve been working on a short story for the Chatham House project on reimagining Piccadilly Circus in the future. They are looking at a digital model, which takes visitors through 100 years over 4 time periods but also if we can manage it, a story bench (my idea) where people can listen to and leave their own stories or thoughts.
A draft of the story is here (3 mins) if you’d like to have a read. It’s based on the Rivers of London being found again and becoming techno mage avatars in the future.
I’m going to speaking with management of Amazon and Blackstone on sustainability issues in November. If you have a good question you’d like me to pose, let me know and I can try and work it into the conversation.
This week I’ve been thinking about biomedical progress as part of my research into how we think about dying and what we die from - I continue to be open to thoughts here. The research has similarities with Thinking Bigly - as in - we have made a huge amount of progress. For instance on life expectancy - but we are still facing many challenges and some of them are seemingly harder than ever.
I've been reflecting on what I’ve learnt from playing a lot of games in my life. 5 min blog on learning from gaming here. The main story here is how 10 year old me lost at Scrabble (runners up trophies below).
...A story of what 10 year old me learned losing at National Scrabble Championships…
...I had qualified for the equivalent of the National Junior Championships in my age category. It was held at the conference centre in Baden-Powell House, off the Cromwell Road (one of the busiest in London) in South Kensington. A detail I recall as event then Baden-Powell was a figure that sparked controversy. He founded the Scouts but is also linked with controversial views on race, and he was supposedly invited to meet Hitler to speak about building ties with the German youth movement at the times.
I had never stepped foot in a place of such concerted scrabble. Tables and rows of boards and letters and clocks. Even back in 1988, the fundamental techniques of good scrabble are the same as today.
A knowledge of allowable words (meaning not necessary). Especially 2 letter words, then 3 letter words then common letters / high scoring 4 letters words, words with high scoring letters in and common 7 letter words.
An idea of “rack balance”
And the ability to find words in your rack and place them down….
Back in 1988, I knew all the 2 letter words, most of the 3 letter words and had a decent understanding of rack balance and common 7 letter words…..
More in the blog Learning from playing games and summary - if you like the business style bullet point version:
-Games can be all skill, all luck or a mix
-In the luck/skill mixed games hard to know what is skill or luck
-Life events are a mix of “luck” and “skill”
-Hope for the best but plan for the worst
-Mind set is important
-Negative mindset will tilt games away from you
-Even at the best skill, poor luck will lose games as in life.
-Many good outcomes are due to luck as in life
-Stand in the sunshine when good luck comes - this is for life events or even whole life circumstances.
-Keep a positive mindset even when you lose games. Rolling a double six happens 1 out of 36 times. Play a decent number of games and you will see this often.
-On average, skill in the long run makes a difference - you might never see it obviously and you may never know it’s impact - so you need to keep trying regardless.
I thought I would update on my speculative COVID vaccine thoughts given the moving timelines here. There are >100 vaccine projects and COVID treatments in motion, and although recent vaccine timelines have slipped, it looks like we will have a vaccine at some point. When? is a key debate. Given the challenges around public health interventions, (lockdowns etc.) in EU/NA - one way we can cut the knot is to go fast on the vaccine. This is one reason why (although not without some downsides) I support the UK challenge trials starting in early 2021. That said we have some decent chances of vaccines by very late this year / Jan 2021. Below is a moderately positive scenario of how the US could be vaccinated.
I think China will have a vaccine starting to distribute to the public by Dec 2020. Chinese officials have indicated data is positive and they are willing to approve.
The UK has an 80% chance (IMO) of a vaccine in Dec/Jan for at risk populations (AZ/Oxford, timelines, newspaper leaks) under emergency approval. The early data is promising and despite the delays, if there were serious safety issues I would have expected to have had more negative news here.
The US has a chance for an emergency vaccine approval late Dec (slipping) or Jan, there are two shots on goal here (Moderna and Pfizer), and I rate the chances around the 70% level (although 40% and dropping for before year end as both have slipped, but still at 70% or so in Q1 2021 time frame). (This is down slightly from earlier due to challenges in the trials). Again early data is promising and no catastrophic safety events seen. Full approvals are more debatable than emergency (as hurdles different, but mixed messages from FDA makes this uncertain). The AZ trial stalled for longer in the US, so is more likely a Q1 2021 event as US don’t seem to want to recognize the UK/EU regulators view here.
Antibody treatments (Regeneron/Roche, Lilly) have a 90% chance of emergency approval before year end, but are only available in limited doses of around 5m to 10m doses pa. Data has been positive especially in the mild-moderate patients.
There are a lot of variations on scenarios here, and supply and distribution as well as anti-vax movements are all other factors to consider. Some polls but vaccine willingness only at or so 50% in the US. Debates arise are on (1) Willingness to vaccinate (2) Regulatory caution around durability as well as efficacy (3) social-political pressures.
It is of note that China is more advanced here seemingly than NA/EU and generally the countries outside of EU/NA are potentially faring better.
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My friend Winnie Li is running a series of free writing workshops, if you know of anyone who’d like to join in please do forward the info. Running until Nov 13, it’s a bunch of free online 1-to1 sessions, talks and workshops Winnie is offering on writing, activism, cultural appropriation, and more — for ‘The Writer’s Bloc’ programme, run by Writing on the Wall in Liverpool. Details: https://www.writingonthewall.org.uk/the-writers-bloc/668-upcoming-writer-on-the-bloc.html
Winnie is best selling authoer of Dark Chapter. Guardian blog here. "Vivian is a cosmopolitan Taiwanese-American tourist who often escapes her busy life in London through adventure and travel. Johnny is a 15-year-old Irish teenager, living a neglected life on the margins of society. On a bright spring afternoon in West Belfast, their paths collide during a horrifying act of violence."
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Archive and repeat words below. Stay well, Stay safe, Ben