Universe evolutions, country rankings
Arts, science: Conversation with writer Julian Gough. Sustainability: Sessions from UnConference. Economics: Ray Dalio on ranking countries. Next London Meet-up.
Arts, science: Conversation with writer Julian Gough on Minecraft end and the nature of the universe
Education: Due to speak with Peter Gray on podcast.
Sustainability: Sessions from recent Sustainability UnConference
Economics: Ray Dalio on ranking countries (UK is doing OK)
Climate: Cary Krosinsky on sustainability and private equity
Links: Stagnation, Degrowth, Founders, AI, Shopify CEO.
Events update: I am due to podcast later in October with educational philosopher and psychologist Peter Gray on play and education. Let me know if you have questions. I should ask. As an aside, he is contra Haidt, who’s view is that social media is a big factor in teenage mental health challenges; as well as being very pro childrens’ rights and agency. You can see his work on his substack.
In early October I am in Toronto, Canada for the PRI (Responsible Investment) conference. Let me know if there are things I should do or if we should meet up. My next London meet-up is on Mon Oct 14 at Theatre Deli, RSVP here if you want to come along. My next event is a (Very) Bigly Climate game on Mon Dec 16th - mark it in your diary if you want to come along for some games and climate thinking.
I had an excellent chat with Julian Gough. Julian has written and created across many forms (children's books, plays, novels, poems) successfully, but is now turning his creative attention to ideas about the formation of the universe.
I really enjoyed the conversation, in part learning about how Julian thinks about creativity and writing, and then for a large part on how he things about synthesising these heterodox and new ideas about the the universe and the nature of how we think about science and progress. He’s fun and entertaining. Listen in or read the chat below.
Julian Gough is an award-winning writer and musician. We explore the breadth of his creative journey, from crafting the 'End Poem' in Minecraft to writing children's books and rock band experiences
We discuss his latest project 'The Egg and the Rock,' which investigates the universe's evolutionary complexity, paralleling biological evolution, and its implications on life, consciousness, and AI.
This conversation extends to a critical reflection on current scientific approaches, the importance of interdisciplinary thinking and writing in public and creative processes.
I helped organise a sustainability UnConference at Chatham House. I hosted a session on what we might learn if aliens came, what they would think of us and what we might ask them. There was a really interested thread of conversation about whether aliens could advise on how to make decisions, especially collective decisions, better and how we would be viewed if through the lens of anything non-human.
Other sessions are below if you want to see what a bunch of sustainability people think when they get together.
Bring Back Artefacts from the Future – Servane
Has the IASB Exposed a 25-Year Accounting Audit Intangible Tax Riddle? – Mike
AI – A Sustainability Solution or Problem? – Annabel
Food Security Migration and South-South Networks – Nick
Investing for Impact in Communities – Sam
Climate Crisis Curriculum – Farm & Maud
Coherent Fluidity in Motion – Marcus
Sustainability Paradox: Consumer vs Class Consumption – Michelle Hazzi
How Can We Create a Sustainable Future for Victims of Multinational Pollution?
Can Missions of Public R&D Help? – Josh Entsminger
Whole Systems Thinking and Coordination – Duc
Is it Time to Scrap the Paris Agreement?
What Would Aliens Advise Us? What Stories?
Global Interconnection Lines: What Should Be Done? How to Avoid Nuclear Energy Hype?
How Sustainable Innovation Can Improve Inequality
The Climate Change Committee – What Next? – Roshana
Missing Ecosystem Thinking? – Philip Bubb
Military Mobility – Inna
The Joule is Mightier than the Dollar: Why Does Finance Obey the Laws of Physics? – Mike
Designing Regenerative Businesses/Orgs – How? – Leo
How to Live Together in an Acrimonious World – Nick
Incrementalism – Hugo
Rights Here: The Real Costs and Benefits of AI – Sarah
A Global Climate Citizens' Assembly? – Sophia
Which Multilateral Institutions are Worth Engaging With?
Head, Heart + Hands: Embracing Embodied Practice in This Work
Role of Music – Lewis
Can AI Help Journalists in Reporting Environmental Crimes?
Intergenerational Exchange: How to Do it (or Not) – Kirsty
Ethical Supply Chains – Michelle Kazi
How Do We Break Down Silos in F&B Retailers to Balance Nutrition/Consumption Targets with Biodiversity/Supply Chain Impact – Danni Lynn
How Can Systems Change Practitioners Learn from Each Other? – Josh Entsminger
Progressive Procurement + Community Wealth Building
Green 'Sustainable' Projects: Delivering in a 'Green' Way
Depolarization is Possible – Katie
A Grand Strategy for Climate Change – Thammy
Green Skills for a Green Economy? – Tim S.
1.5m Homes in 1.5°C Warming? – Matilda
Depolarization is Possible – Katie
MPs
Unconventional Computing – Lewis
Transition to a Plant-Based Food System? – Amanda
Plant-Based Diet – Yuna
Strategic Adaptation for Emergency Resilience – Rupert Read (Climate Majority Project)
The Power of 'The Academy': The Role of Deep Ecological Education
Ending Digital Gender-Based Violence Globally – Sarah
Engaging Policy in Citizen Assemblies
Carbon Blindness – Anna
As I’ve written about before, I think the UnConference format is really good for events like this.
Ray Dalio recently shared his work on ranking countries. He does this from a macro investing perspective on where to place government bonds and currency money. But it also informs a long view of history and cycles perspective.
I find it interesting because it’s a semi-quantative index that has parts of GDP - standard econ modelling; as well as health (a human development score) and happiness (a totally different type of index although with decent GDP correlation, which I talk about in previous blogs). The observations on China and the US are unsurprising; and those on South Korea and other fast growing nations are also unsurprising to those observing (look at the soft power of K-pop, K-TV eg squid game; and the global presence of Korean bbq), but perhaps surprising is how we the UK scores. Still a decent showing on GDP and high showings on health and happiness. Despite all the moaning here in the UK in the media - and we have many challenges we should be better on - the UK actually has a very solid base to work from in part because of its idiosyncratic mix of strong freedoms, dominant language and central timezone (see again my previous blog on how happy the UK is). (Sam Bowman et al have a paper on identifying UK’s stagnation problems, but the optimistic take is that many of these growth problems might in part be soluble and are in part identified). The UK has this investment and stagnation gap and is still scoring OK - imagine if we solved some of these problems!
Here is the index table some explanation of the index thoughts.
“In this report I show, for each of 24 major countries, their 1) levels of strength as measured by a number of indicators showing different types of strength (e.g., GDP, share of world trade, education levels, military strength), 2) levels of health, as measured by bodily health indices (e.g., life expectancy, child mortality rates, chronic diseases), 3) levels of happiness, as measured by several measures (e.g., surveyed happiness and satisfaction with life, suicide rates, reported daily enjoyment) and 4) projected economic growth prospects as measured by real growth rates over the next 10 years. These indices are based on 21 gauges showing the types of measures used and that are each made up of several hundred indicators. Besides being measures of well-being, these measures are also effective KPIs for measuring how well governments are doing to improve conditions.
By showing and separating strength, health, and happiness, I hope to prompt thinking about their relative importance as well as to convey a richer picture than would otherwise be conveyed. I hope that will prompt people and their leaders to think about what they are going after (e.g., what mix of strength, health, happiness, and real economic growth) and how to get those things. The differences between them are often striking and pursuing one or some of these can be at the expense of others. For example, the United States, by our measure the strongest country, has only the 14th strongest projected growth rate based on long-term leading indicators of growth and ranks 10th and 14th in terms of happiness and health, respectively. While India has the highest projected real growth rate, it ranks 23rd in terms of health, and ranks last in terms of happiness. The United Kingdom which ranks best on happiness is the 8th strongest, the 6th healthiest and the 15th best for expected growth. The table below shows the total strength, health, happiness, and projected growth rates for the 24 major countries that I measure.”
Cary Krosinsky and team on Private Equity and sustainability, latest report. I think private markets are important here because these markets are a major source of primary capital for sustainability and other challenges. This may be more important than the secondary equity and bonds markets that many investors have money in, due to the additional projects they bring. (Think about building new houses, rather than renting or swapping houses between people; new houses bring a tangible new project to life. Swapping home ownership (secondary markets) only swap the owners). His summary:
“While more progress is clearly necessary, these firms all now have climate specific funds which is a great first step to see, and comes largely from demand of their existing clients.
Previous efforts regarding the future of Private Equity have mainly focused on two areas:
1) how GPs can effectively collaborate with the portfolio companies they own stakes in, and
2) how to generate ESG data for these privately owned entities (State Owned Enterprises are also private organizations, where ESG reporting is now often required)
Limited Partners (LPs) also have concentrated historically, for the most part, on:
3) conducting due diligence on GPs that they currently partner with or are considering for possible new capital allocations.
It is increasingly critical for LPs to understand whether their partners are adequately addressing climate risk along with other significant environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues.”
Check out his substack for more sustainability thoughts from him and peers.
Links:
UK Stagnation diagnosis essay (housing, infra, energy) but Bowman, Southwood, Hughes. https://ukfoundations.co/
FT’s Soumaya Keynes on degrowth research (and its thinness). https://on.ft.com/4dwfvbX
“Degrowth contains two big ideas: that growth is or may be incompatible with sustaining the planet; and that radical economic change is required as a result. Since one can disagree with either or both of these, it is hardly surprising that there is controversy over what exactly “counts” as falling within the field. And given the scale of the change degrowthers want, it isn’t surprising that empirical evidence on the journey or the destination is a little thin.” Me: note the first idea is an extension of Malthus thinking which is still very much worth reading.
Patrick Collison on Founder mode/mentatlities or when it good ro not to be a micromanager. https://x.com/patrickc/status/1835434966072836483
Latest OpenAI/GPT and its ability to do crosswords and better reasoning. Ethan Mollick work. https://x.com/emollick/status/1834296929989115914
Podcast: Tyler Cowen with Tobi Lütke…the CEO and co-founder of Shopify. 20 years ago, he was just a German coder who emigrated to Canada to launch some ecommerce platform with another German. Now he’s the world-renowned thought and tech leader who has revolutionized online shopping for billions. He’s also the creator of many open-source libraries like Liquid, Active Merchant, and the Typo weblog engine. https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/tobi-lutke/
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